How long until war with Iran starts?

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by MOOtant, Feb 29, 2012.

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  1. MOOtant

    MOOtant Member

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    MOOtant, Feb 29, 2012
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  2. -MEG- hobbes

    -MEG- hobbes Member

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    expect Israel to cast the first stone. Since they have no nukes and all.
     
    -MEG- hobbes, Feb 29, 2012
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  3. WalMartGreeter

    WalMartGreeter Member

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    Your implication seems to misunderstanding the concept of cause and effect.
     
    WalMartGreeter, Feb 29, 2012
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  4. McGyver

    McGyver Experimental Pedagogue

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    There won't be a war until Iran is totally weakened by the sanctions. Or another republican idiot becomes president.
     
    McGyver, Feb 29, 2012
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  5. Fooshi

    Fooshi For fuck's sake Fooshi

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    All US president candidates are idiots in this election. Fucking religious twats.
     
    Fooshi, Feb 29, 2012
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  6. Z100000M

    Z100000M Vithered Weteran

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    American experts are working to estimate Iran's oil deposits right now.
     
    Z100000M, Feb 29, 2012
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  7. flasche

    flasche Member Staff Member Moderator

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    hehehe
     
    flasche, Feb 29, 2012
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  8. Space_Oddity

    Space_Oddity The Shitstorm

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    Wait until the next bombing in the USA to cause an OTT backlash; regardless of whodunnit, the excuse is too good to pass up.

    As for the presidential candidates, Romney is suprisingly sane compared to most of the gun-toting Republican hillbillies. That said, he is still an asshole.
     
    Space_Oddity, Feb 29, 2012
    #8
  9. flasche

    flasche Member Staff Member Moderator

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    i think this is not neccessary its way more probable that hobbes is right.
     
    flasche, Feb 29, 2012
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  10. Trickster

    Trickster Retired Developer

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    Unless a new candidate comes in, the Republicans have killed off any chances they had of winning the election, the entire primary thus far has damaged them too much.

    As for war, idk. If the Supreme leader kicks out the President (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) then things could get a lot nastier. I can't see any more than air raids happening though, unless Iran retaliate in any way. Israel or the US would just bomb their facilities and nothing would happen. If Iran then shut the Strait of Hormuz, then shit could obviously get serious, but I still can't see anything more than a clearing of that, and then hitting from the air with bombers or missile strikes. Point being, I think it unlikely that anything other than a direct attack on another country by Iran will provoke either the US or Israel into sending troops in.
     
    Trickster, Feb 29, 2012
    #10
  11. flasche

    flasche Member Staff Member Moderator

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    which by international law already are acts of war ...
     
    flasche, Feb 29, 2012
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  12. Trickster

    Trickster Retired Developer

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    Ofc, but they're still miles away from actually putting troops on the ground. And I'm talking about actual troops, not a small group of special forces. I.e. I wouldn't consider what happened in Libya as a full invasion from us, because we never put men in there except a select few special forces.
     
    Trickster, Feb 29, 2012
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  13. Varbles

    Varbles Simply Maptastic. Staff Member

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    This situation is a lot more akin to the situation in the gulf before the first gulf war than it is to 2003 Iraq or Afghanistan.

    Iran's leadership may be crazy, but they're not oblivious enough to follow in the footsteps of Iraq I don't think. They are more in-tune to the specific politics that play out between the gulf countries than we give them credit for. Shutting off the strait of hormuz is against the interest of every other country there and a direct action against the outflow of oil, and Iran is aware of that. The US's goal is to keep the flow of oil from the region secure (not necessarily to directly control the oil), and Iran knows how little leeway they have when it comes to direct actions. We invaded Iraq in the first gulf war with the cooperation of Saudi Arabia and so many other gulf countries because Iraq's perceived aim was to control the gulf. If there was a general perceived threat that Iran would try to extend it's control in the gulf or otherwise hamper outflow, we could see the same situation of us moving in to fortify and crush Iran's offensive power, be it a large ground force, offending fleet in the strait, or possible nuclear facilities. A situation like this, however, wouldn't play out unless Iran's actions were seen as a legitimate threat to the security of oil trade coming out of the gulf by both us and other countries in the gulf. At the moment it's clear that Iran's actions are just posturing and they aren't about to try and take control of the strait, and I do really doubt that they would try and make a move that would incur US intervention.

    Israel on the other hand, is not concerned with oil flow or security of the gulf, so it's much harder to consider them as a rational actor. If anything regarding military action and Iran happens, it will most likely be the direct actions of Israel incurring it.

    My two cents, having studied the first gulf war a bit.
     
    Varbles, Feb 29, 2012
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  14. Trickster

    Trickster Retired Developer

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    FYI a ground assault on Iran would be utter suicide. Once they include reservists, which are generally something countries only use for defence, rather than offence, they're into the millions. Add to that the fact that Iran is huge, no amount of bombing or missile striking could properly dent their defensive capability, and you can't neutralise their offensive capability without fighting their defensive capability.

    Point being, the most the US or any armed forces can do to Iran, is attack from the air. And that never gets any territory taken.
     
    Trickster, Feb 29, 2012
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  15. MOOtant

    MOOtant Member

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    I wasn't on about politics, muslims or any of that crap. IMO it will happen and would still happen even without all of it but with dollar vs gold conflict alone.
     
    MOOtant, Feb 29, 2012
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  16. complete_

    complete_ lamer

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    1. elect ronpaul
    2. gold standard
     
    complete_, Feb 29, 2012
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  17. Candles

    Candles CAPTAIN CANDLES, DUN DUN DUN, DUN DUN DUN DUN.

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    3. crash economy
    4. ruin country
     
    Candles, Mar 1, 2012
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  18. Zeke

    Zeke Banned

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    are you implying that step 1 and 2 would fix the economy and improve the country?
     
    Zeke, Mar 1, 2012
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  19. complete_

    complete_ lamer

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    thats exactly the same steps as 1 and 2
     
    complete_, Mar 1, 2012
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  20. WalMartGreeter

    WalMartGreeter Member

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    Okay, so it is more than an implication. You are deluded. If you think we went into Iraq (or any country) because they stopped using the dollar, you are an idiot. Iraq, and other countries in similar situation, make numerous, silly threats to deter conflict and/or redirect conversation (& remaining behind war). I still laugh at all of the idiots that believed we went into war with Iraq because of oil.
     
    WalMartGreeter, Mar 1, 2012
    #20
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